The Driver Market Is Tightening. Is Your Fleet Ready?
Transcript
00:00 - 00:29
Ginger Craddock: Recruiting infrastructure takes time to build. Your reputation takes time to build. Your recruiting processes take time to improve. So what I'm seeing is increasingly executives are thinking, how do we protect ourselves if the market changes quickly? They're making themselves ready.
00:45 - 01:08
Aaron Craddock: Ginger, you have spent the last several months talking directly with Fleets. So you've been in strategy meeting, industry events like TCA, Texas Trucking Show, meeting with fleets and directors recruiting around the country. And something's happening now that seems kinda contradictory. So you have freight isn't exactly booming. Fleets are still watching costs.
01:09 - 01:24
Aaron Craddock: The economy feels uncertain. And yet we're hearing more and more concern just about driver capacity. Are we quietly entering a period where fleets that wait to solve their problem of driver capacity might be too late?
01:25 - 01:51
Ginger Craddock: Aaron, that's a perfect question. There are several things happening at the same time. Regulation is tightening, the qualified driver pool is being compressed. There's capacity leaving the market, and freight rates are beginning to move even though we're seeing freight volumes aren't particularly strong. So fleets are becoming what I'm seeing and hearing.
01:51 - 02:26
Ginger Craddock: They're becoming more intentional about the drivers that they actually want. So when you put that all those things together, I'm seeing that the conversation is changing. It's not how many drivers do we need this month. The conversations that we're beginning to have and that I'm beginning to hear ask is, do we have the recruiting infrastructure and reputation to compete for the drivers that we're gonna need in the next six months from now? So very forward thinking and strategically thinking.
02:28 - 02:35
Aaron Craddock: So what feels different about that conversation, let's say, now compared to, like, a year ago?
02:36 - 03:27
Ginger Craddock: So there's there's definitely still caution around the economy, but there is this optimistic hope, but yet it's a cautious optimism. Leaders definitely are not universally saying freight is back like some of the things that we've seen in the past. They definitely are thinking more seriously about capacity, retention, and driver quality. So as I've been in those conversations, they definitely are talking more about the whole pipeline and what that looks like. They realize what they've done in the past is not gonna work in the current market and going forward.
03:27 - 03:34
Ginger Craddock: So I'm hearing a lot of outside of the box thinking and full pipeline thinking and conversations.
03:37 - 04:03
Aaron Craddock: Those are some interesting points. So specifically, so we're seeing, when I talk to peers in the industry, just freight overall being soft and but but at the same time, you know, rates moving upward. How can both things be true? So it doesn't seem like an overly robust economy. And at the same time, we're seeing rates go up.
04:05 - 04:43
Ginger Craddock: So you're exactly right, Aaron. Less freight when we look at the economics and the data, less freight doesn't always mean excess capacity anymore. As the freight demand strengthens and hopefully it continues to strengthen, but while capacity also is tightening, what we realized from the market that we've been in is the driver conversations can change really quickly. So I think that's where some of that hesitancy is coming from. And so let's talk data.
04:43 - 05:33
Ginger Craddock: Like, we're we're data people because the data tells the story. And so interestingly, the cast report that came out in June, it actually showed that freight shipments are down 4.1% year over year. So it's like, oh, that that's where some of this cautious optimism is coming if we're really looking holistically at the data. But what we're also seeing in conjunction with that is that freight expenditures were actually up 11.2% year over year. A ATA is also pointing to the declining capacity as an important part of what fleets are experiencing.
05:33 - 05:56
Ginger Craddock: So when you kind of coalesce all the numbers together, you see the market is giving this mixed review about where we are. So caution, wisdom, strategy are going to be different. We are in a different market that is going to require different things than we've done in the past.
05:58 - 06:22
Aaron Craddock: So one of the big things like impacting capacity is regulation. So let's talk a little bit about just all the regulation. That's probably the biggest change we've seen this year that may be, you know, a contributing factor to all this or the key driver. So what should fleet leaders really be paying attention to? We have lot of noise, but what should they be paying attention to right now?
06:23 - 07:01
Ginger Craddock: I would pay attention to the cumulative effect, not just one regulation. What we're seeing is much as being talked about in the industry a lot right now is we're seeing much stronger enforcement around who is qualified. I love what the FMCSA director says. Are getting rid of the bad actors to make room for the reputable, respectable fleets and drivers, professional drivers that are out there. And you guys know that's the English language proficiency is one example.
07:01 - 07:46
Ginger Craddock: The non domicile CDL enforcement is another. The training, scrutiny, all those things are at play. This impacts the available qualified drivers. So a couple of numbers that are worth discussing with where we are right now, over 26,000 drivers have already been placed out of service for failed English language proficiency. 28,000 illegally issued non domiciled CDLs have been revoked nationwide as of last May, and that number has continued to go up as we are here later in the summer.
07:46 - 08:07
Ginger Craddock: Also, I really appreciate this. Federal investigators audited approximately 1,500 training providers. So they're putting boots on the ground. They're going out there. They're seeing what's really going on in the real world, and they're using enforcement to guide back to where we need to be.
08:08 - 08:29
Ginger Craddock: So more than 6,800 unqualified training providers have been removed. But again, that's as of May. But again, that makes room for the credible quality training programs. So we wanna reinforce those good things in the industry.
08:30 - 09:01
Aaron Craddock: Yeah. Yeah. I'm hearing optimism from just the fleets that have been doing it the right way in terms of safety and compliance and and yeah, the fleets that already have had a focus on things that arguably should be the focus seem to be more optimistic. And then people that are just that have been running and maybe not following all the rules seem to be less optimistic. So that's kind of the net trend I'm seeing.
09:03 - 09:23
Aaron Craddock: So one of the I wanna challenge you on something. So we hear all the time, there's a driver shortage. And then maybe two posts later on LinkedIn, we're scrolling through and we see there isn't a driver shortage. There's a retention problem. Well, both can't simultaneously be true.
09:23 - 09:24
Aaron Craddock: So what is going on?
09:25 - 10:13
Ginger Craddock: So true to social media, I think the the highlight reel is too simplistic. So there are plenty of people holding CDLA CDLs, but that doesn't mean that there are plenty of drivers who meet a specific fleet's requirements or that that specific driver even wants the job that a specific fleet is advertising. You know, it depends on where as you guys know, it depends on where they live. Is the acceptable is the home time model acceptable to them and to their family and the way that they wanna live their life? What about drivers?
10:13 - 11:47
Ginger Craddock: You know, some of them can't qualify under the specific fleet standards. And so those are all meaningful parts of the conversation. So that's the pool that matters is the experienced professional drivers that meet your fleet's criteria and also want to drive for you, to be a part of your culture, to be a part of your story because one thing I found to be true in human behavior on some level, I think inside each of us is a desire to be part of something bigger than ourselves. And can I tell you, there are some professional drivers and some fleets out there doing incredibly meaningful work, providing excellent customer service, having an internal positive team culture, having I I was on a call yesterday for TCA with Jeremy Raymer and Tim from Garner Trucking, and we were talking about the health of drivers and what fleets can do culturally to help support the drivers? You know, I love that this is all part of the conversation of what makes the right fleet fit, the right job for a driver, and the right driver for the right fleet.
11:47 - 12:00
Ginger Craddock: These are meaningful conversations. So skip the highlight reel, join the meaningful conversations about how we make our industry better in this changing environment.
12:01 - 12:25
Aaron Craddock: Yeah. And I think with this perspective you have, we're not ignoring the fact that we can improve things for drivers, like, and then make this a better career. And there's a ton of work in the industry to do. However, we are yeah. I think just acknowledging, like, who has the intention and what fleets have the intention and the culture to make it a better experience for drivers.
12:25 - 12:57
Aaron Craddock: And then, yeah, something as simple as tailoring the offer to the right locations that a driver can make enough money and get home to their family. And so again, right fit. And there are enough CDL holders and probably even that fit the changing criteria. It's just how do we get them in that right fleet. So you've also had conversations at industry events recently, as we talked about in the beginning.
12:58 - 13:09
Aaron Craddock: When you walk the floor and you're meeting with fleet leaders across some of the nation's largest transportation companies, What conversations are happening when the microphone isn't on?
13:10 - 13:48
Ginger Craddock: I kinda like it's not the highlight reel, kinda back to our last question. The the real conversations that are happening in the room is I hear a combination of uncertainty and cautious optimism. And the meaningful conversations that are going on is leaders are trying to figure out where can they strategically make the best moves. So they're beginning to talk about, you know, if their fleet is aging, do we add trucks? If so, when?
13:48 - 14:17
Ginger Craddock: If so, how many? Do we wait? Where's the freight moving? You know, most of what's driving the freight market that came out in a recent event that I was at, it was at the TXTA event, is actually AI and the building the infrastructure of what it's taking to build AI. So if you're hauling that freight, you are seeing exponential increase.
14:17 - 14:35
Ginger Craddock: And so some of the increases we're seeing are not in all sectors. They are more narrowed. And so that's part of what leaders are talking about. They're evaluating the type of freight that they're hauling, where they're hauling their lanes. They're asking questions like, where can we recruit?
14:35 - 15:23
Ginger Craddock: Where where are the best drivers coming out of? What are some areas that are maybe performed well in the past, but because of competition or because of changes in the market are not performing as well now? So, again, not highlight real conversations, but thoughtful strategic conversations are going on by incredibly talented leaders, directors, executives. Every event I come away from, I come away with a sense of awe at the incredible, meaningful work that these leaders are doing in trucking. It makes me really proud to be be in trucking.
15:23 - 15:25
Ginger Craddock: It's it's the people and the work.
15:26 - 15:53
Aaron Craddock: Yeah. I had the president of Fleets reach out to me at it was like 04:15 this morning, and like a follow-up. And And I was just thinking, and to be fair, I think it was 04:15, and they're on the East Coast, so Eastern time, so probably 05:15 their time. But just, know, president of an organization, feeling all the pressure. And honestly, it made me when I woke up and saw that this morning, because I was not awake at 04:15.
15:55 - 16:30
Aaron Craddock: Was just thinking how much just opportunity that Hire Truckers has to just serve this industry and help with these really critical challenges. And so let's say I'm gonna give you another really hard question. So let's say I'm running a 2,000 truck fleet, and freight is okay, but not fantastic. You know, maybe I'm not hauling those AI loads, the flatbed loads that are continuing to increase. I'm sitting at 94% seated.
16:31 - 16:37
Aaron Craddock: Why shouldn't I just wait to fill my capacity, like to fill every truck?
16:38 - 17:17
Ginger Craddock: So again, think about the big picture and the overall compression and risk and uncertainty that's in the market from all angles that we've been talking about. So recruiting infrastructure takes time to build. Your reputation takes time to build. Your recruiting processes take time to improve. So what I'm seeing is increasingly executives are thinking, how do we protect ourselves if the market changes quickly?
17:18 - 17:36
Ginger Craddock: They're making themselves ready. So one of the some of the ways that they're making themselves ready is they're looking at their recruiting infrastructure. They're evaluating that. They're evaluating their brand and their reputation. They're looking for places to make improvements.
17:37 - 18:13
Ginger Craddock: And also relationships with drivers take time to develop. So if we wait until everyone suddenly needs drivers or the market continues to compress or something unexpected happens, you're entering the market exactly the same way as everybody else. So do you want to follow the crowd? Or do you want to position your fleet ahead of the curve? And that's what I'm hearing from these thoughtful conversations.
18:15 - 18:54
Ginger Craddock: Fleet leaders are doing meaningful work in the backrooms, at the table, talking about sharing best practices, opportunities for improvement. So you're you're moving out of that bucket of doing what everybody else is doing, competing on pay, sign on bonuses, equipment, home time, recruiters, recruiter speed, brand reputation, and marketing dollars. You've got something much bigger that you've built to compete on. It's not if things change, it's when things change. And so it's a much more strategic approach.
18:54 - 19:20
Ginger Craddock: And and I think that's the benefit of what's come out of this unexpected long three year struggle is I think it helped all of us think differently do differently and look at bigger strategic ideas and not just follow the repetitive cycle that we've seen for the last thirty years in trucking.
19:20 - 19:32
Aaron Craddock: Mhmm. And I would argue too that it's not just a three year struggle. It's a forever struggle. It's just a different it's a different set of strategies, you know, challenges now. Just yeah.
19:32 - 19:49
Aaron Craddock: And so so let's connect connect all of this for me. So freight, regulation, driverability, availability, and rates. What picture is forming, like, holistically? If we take it, like, all the different things we've covered, what picture do you see forming?
19:49 - 20:30
Ginger Craddock: I'm seeing the possibility of a different trucking market forming underneath the still uncertain economy. Freight demand doesn't have to explode. Capacity simply has to become constrained enough relative to the demand. So that's why I wouldn't just watch freight volumes. I would watch and and and can I tell you executives and fleet leaders are already doing this many of them especially the leading innovators?
20:30 - 20:48
Ginger Craddock: How many carriers are leaving? How many drivers are being removed from the qualified pool? We've talked about some of the metrics and those are going to continue. Those numbers are going to continue to go up. As always, what's happening to spot and contract rates?
20:49 - 21:06
Ginger Craddock: What are fleets paying to recruit? What is your actual cost per hire? And and how does that change with the constriction and its changes in the market? And where are qualified drivers? This is my favorite question.
21:07 - 21:24
Ginger Craddock: Where are the qualified drivers choosing to work? Hiring CDL drivers isn't about more leads. It's about better ones. That's why serious carriers partner with Hire Truckers by Trucking Clicks. We don't sell ads.
21:25 - 22:01
Ginger Craddock: We bring clear strategy, straight talk, and a relentless focus on quality drivers. Even in a tough market, our clients see improved performance month over month. By optimizing smarter and making every hiring dollar work harder. For honest insight, sharper targeting and results that you can trust, visit truckingclicks.com or call (512) 982-0816. Hire Truckers by Trucking Clicks, clarity, courage, results.
22:01 - 22:18
Aaron Craddock: So let's make this like thinking from a BP, like fleet executive standpoint, or or c level at a top fleet. It's like, hey, all this information is great. I kinda already know it. I appreciate the connecting dots. But like, okay, Ginger.
22:18 - 22:22
Aaron Craddock: What do I do Monday morning? How would you answer that?
22:22 - 22:46
Ginger Craddock: The first thing I would say is do we actually know our hiring math? Not applications, not just leads, not just hires. How many qualified leads does it take to produce one seated driver? How how long does it take? What does the higher cost?
22:46 - 23:07
Ginger Craddock: And what percentage of those drivers say? And I would want not only the executive team thinking about that, or I would want the whole the whole organization in their different pieces looking at these questions and contributing to the solutions, answering those questions.
23:09 - 23:09
Aaron Craddock: That's great.
23:09 - 23:38
Ginger Craddock: The next thing that I would ask is do we know who succeeds here? So think about your organization. Who are the drivers that are succeeding? Maybe have some conversations with them because the reason you think they're succeeding may not be their same perception. So be curious ask them some questions around that.
23:39 - 24:03
Ginger Craddock: Number three, I would ask, could our recruiting engine scale quickly if the market changed? So if you needed 25% more drivers ninety days from now, could you produce them? And how long would it take for you to produce them and get them seated?
24:04 - 24:18
Aaron Craddock: That's great. Yeah. It's like, where would those constraints be? I love I love that you didn't answer where should they start on a Monday morning, but that you answered with questions. Because it really is just the quality of how we think about the problem and how deeply we think.
24:18 - 24:46
Aaron Craddock: And so I think those are three or four incredible questions that fleet executives can ask themselves. Because we don't know. If you had answered it, I think we would have been wrong for half the fleets, right? Because it is so different for each fleet, each freight type, and executives tend to know their business. And so it's just surfacing those right questions that they need to ask to just think ahead, not just think like, how do I survive today?
24:47 - 25:00
Aaron Craddock: But how do I thrive a year from now? So those are the type of things we're thinking about. So rapid fire, what Ginger is watching. So I'm gonna give you a topic. And then this is the first time we've tried this on a show.
25:00 - 25:10
Aaron Craddock: So we'll see how it lands. So I'm gonna give you a topic, and then you give me the first thing that you're watching. That sound okay?
25:11 - 25:17
Ginger Craddock: Okay. I'm a little bit competitive, and I wanna get it right. Let's go. Let's try.
25:17 - 25:20
Aaron Craddock: K. Short answers. Freight rates.
25:21 - 25:22
Ginger Craddock: Capacity.
25:24 - 25:25
Aaron Craddock: Driver recruiting.
25:27 - 25:29
Ginger Craddock: Quality over volume.
25:29 - 25:32
Aaron Craddock: K. Regulation.
25:33 - 25:40
Ginger Craddock: Cumulative impact on the qualified driver pool. I cheated. That's, like, a whole sentence.
25:40 - 25:43
Aaron Craddock: Gotta tighten it up. Retention.
25:44 - 25:46
Ginger Craddock: Driver fit. Driver fit.
25:47 - 25:47
Aaron Craddock: AI.
25:51 - 25:55
Ginger Craddock: Oh, oh, speed without losing the human relationship.
25:56 - 25:59
Aaron Craddock: Biggest fleet opportunity.
26:00 - 26:07
Ginger Craddock: Oh, build before you desperately need it because change will come. We just don't know exactly from where. Oh, too long.
26:08 - 26:09
Aaron Craddock: Biggest risk.
26:10 - 26:14
Ginger Craddock: Waiting for the market to tell you that it's changed.
26:16 - 26:35
Aaron Craddock: All right. Let's tie let's tie this all together. I know we're reaching the end of our time. Appreciate you jumping on with me today. So if you're right, and we're entering this period where finding these qualified drivers that are the right fit for a fleet, if we're really doing that, what separates the fleets that win from the fleets that struggle?
26:38 - 27:26
Ginger Craddock: The fleets that win won't simply be the fleets willing to spend more money on recruiting. They're the fleets that are gonna know who they're looking for, why that driver should choose them, and how to move that driver from interest to hire quickly. And then they have to deliver the experience that they promised, you know, that directly ties to retention, because ultimately, this isn't just a recruiting equation, it's a stability equation. The fleets that understand their drivers best will be in the strongest position to respond to whatever the freight market or just whatever happens in the world next.
27:28 - 27:39
Aaron Craddock: Awesome. Well, we'll wrap it with that. That's awesome. And I'm gonna leave everybody just with a question as we wrap this up to be thinking about. Are you building your driver strategy for like the market of right now and today?
27:39 - 28:04
Aaron Craddock: Or are you building your driver strategy for the market six months, a year from now, two years from now? Again, we don't have a crystal ball. But I think that's kind of the question to add to the questions Ginger had earlier is like, are you building your driver strategy around the market we're in today and being reactive? Or are thinking about the market for the next, let's say, twelve months? That's it.
28:04 - 28:06
Aaron Craddock: Well, thank you, Ginger. Really appreciate your time today.
28:06 - 28:06
Ginger Craddock: Thank you.